
A woman receives a sticker from an election worker after submitting her ballot. (Photo by Zach S.)
America currently faces an existential question about race that is eerily similar to the question that drove it to civil war: Will race — and with it, racism — define our politics? The answer, in the form of which candidate prevails in November, will likely determine the trajectory of race in politics. But the foreboding lesson of 1860 is that even when the more unifying candidate wins, the country can fracture.
There are meaningful parallels to draw between the upcoming election and the election of 1860, many of which offer bleak warnings about the harms of political division. The election of 1860 was one of the most formative in American history, a flashpoint in the nation’s struggle with slavery, state sovereignty, and national identity. It was also the election that catalyzed secession and civil war. While the fundamental issues of today have shifted in tone, the underlying dynamics of fear-mongering, racial resentment, and existential questions about national identity are still driving the upcoming election, much like they did in 1860.
The Return of Existential Questions on Race
In 1860, the question of slavery — both its expansion and its moral status — dominated national discourse. The South’s economic system was deeply tied to slavery, and as historian Michael Burlingame details, many white Southerners believed their livelihoods were under threat from Northern abolitionist forces. In turn, Abraham Lincoln, who opposed the expansion of slavery, was considered an existential threat to the South, and his election contributed to the secessionist movement that sparked the Civil War.
In 2024, America is again caught up in existential questions about race, though the focus has shifted. Racial resentment has returned to the forefront of political discourse, fueled by debates over immigration, diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs, and the legacy of systemic racism. Modern Republicans, in a manner that mirrors pro-slavery forces of the 1860s, are increasingly framing these issues as threats to the nation’s identity.
Just as the South believed the abolition of slavery would destroy their way of life, many modern conservatives fear increasing racial diversity will upend the fabric of America. In this way, both elections involved exaggerated fears about race that reveal deeper anxieties about societal transformation.
Divisive Rhetoric and Fear-Mongering
According to most accounts, the campaign cycle leading up to the 2024 election has been particularly ugly. Candidates are name-calling. Lying. Belittling. You name it. Donald Trump proved in 2016 that the costs of negative campaigning may not be as steep as previously thought, and both candidates seem to be taking that finding to heart in their recent campaign approaches. Similar to 1860, fear-mongering by candidates has dramatically shaped the political landscape. In 1860, pro-slavery politicians in the South argued that the election of Lincoln would lead to the abolition of slavery and economic collapse. This fear-mongering — backed more by rhetoric than evidence — created a mentality among many white Southerners that their survival depended on breaking from the Union. As historian Adam Smith argues, it didn’t matter that Lincoln had only promised to halt the spread of slavery, not abolish it outright; the perception of threat was enough to fracture the country.
Similar patterns are emerging in 2024. Republican politicians frequently invoke the dangers of immigration and DEI as existential threats to the American way of life. We’re made to believe our country is being flooded by dangerous immigrants who are taking jobs, committing crimes, and threatening national security. All the while, DEI initiatives are portrayed as radical policies that undermine American values by enforcing “woke” ideologies that divide the nation. If you believe in diversity, you may be labeled as unpatriotic. When anti-immigration candidates win, the election may be deemed rigged.
Yet the evidence simply isn’t there. These modern concerns about race are built on exaggerated claims rather than genuine evidence, just as was the case in 1860. In fact, the evidence says the opposite. Immigration is beneficial to the economy and cultural awareness. DEI does reduce racial inequalities. Despite this, it’s the rhetoric that matters — the rhetoric continues to fan the flames of fear, widening the polarization crack that seems closer to becoming a chasm every day.

Ballot officials open mail-in ballots. (Photo by Zach S.)
Where do we go from here?
The election of 1860 ultimately led to the Civil War — the bloodiest conflict in American history. Deep divisions over slavery proved too great to be settled through political means, and violence grew out of this division. There has been no clearer example of the danger of fear and resentment.
So what makes 2024 any different? You would be hard pressed to find a historian who thinks a comparable civil war is on the horizon, but the potential for societal fracture is real. Political violence is not a thing of the past, as the recent assassination attempts on Trump and attack on Paul Pelosi reveal. The January 6th insurrection at the Capitol is another reminder that the effects of increasing polarization can cause bloodshed. As in 1860, fear-based narratives around race and identity — if left unchecked — could lead to a crisis point where political solutions are no longer viable.
The onus for change likely falls on a number of entities. For one, it is the candidates themselves. They have the attention and therefore set the talking points. But it is also the political parties that prop up the candidates and determine who is given a platform. It’s also the media, and the platform they choose to provide or take away based on the veracity of claims. Ultimately, though, in our enduring democratic country, the power resides in voters. Until a true unity candidate climbs the ranks, it seems likely the country will continue to teeter on the brink of fracture. And if history tells us anything, the hard part is not the fracture. It is the recovery.