The election of 1876 was characterized by uncertainty and how close it was. The race was between Republican Rutherford B Hayes and Democrat Samuel Tilden. Tilden did win the majority popular vote, however he did not win the presidency due to the electoral college. Hayes won the college by only one vote, making this election incredibly close and controversial. This election draws parallels to the anticipated 2024 election between Vice President Harris and former President Trump. The upcoming election is anticipated to be a close race.
The election of 1876 was somewhat concerned with legitimacy, which is an issue we face right now in the fallout of the 2020 election and widespread fear over voter fraud. In 1876, Rutherford B Hayes had 20 contested electoral votes and 165 certified votes, while Tilden had 184. According to the webpage “Disputed Election of 1876” by Sheila Blackford, a commission was created to combat this issue. The commission was a compromise as the Constitution dictated that the then President of the Senate, Republican Thomas W. Ferry. However, the Democrats argued that Congress, which had a Democratic majority, should decide instead. The commission was made through the Electoral Commission Act, which made a commission of two Democratic senators, three Republican senators, two Republicans representatives, three Democratic representatives and five Supreme Court justices. The job of the commission was to handle the election votes. What’s very interesting about this election though, is that Hayes was initially against the commission but later came around to support it because it would bring greater legitimacy to the election.
This parallels many of the fears people have about the upcoming 2024 election, especially following the 2020 election which was marred with issues about legitimacy. The Washington Post article, “American Democracy is in Trouble–Even If Harris Wins” by Perry Bacon Jr. lays out some anticipated outcomes of the election. Even in the best case scenario for Harris, Bacon Jr. is concerned that conservatives won’t see her, a “liberal Black woman from California”, as a legitimate president.
All of these outcomes are concerned with legitimacy as the immediate election following the January 6th insurrection, which was a crisis of legitimacy so great it caused people to storm the Capitol building to stop the counting of the votes. As this election looms closer and closer, we can only wonder if we’ll be facing a similar crisis of legitimacy for the 2024 election, and, if so, what we can do to fix it.
I hope the results will remain uncontested, but as you point out, it is a valid concern. The commission in 1876 was a response to real concerns of election shenanigans. In 2020, there seemed to be a lack of legitimate allegations, but it does not seem to matter when enough people believe them to be legitimate. As you highlighted, the closeness of the election could be a deciding factor in how contested it ends up being and if polling is accurate that means contested results are to be expected.